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The traditional peak season is approaching, and market speculation in the chemical industry is gradually picking up.

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2020-12-23

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　　With the traditional peak season approaching, the chemical market posted a modest rebound last week. The Chemical Price Index (CCPI) released by ChemNet closed at 3,537 points, up 0.8%.

　　Among the 160 key chemical products monitored, 55 saw price increases, accounting for 34.4%; the top three products with the largest gains were butadiene, acetone, and methanol. Fifty products experienced price declines, representing 31.2%, with isopropyl alcohol, acetic acid, and naphthalene ranking as the top three in terms of decline. The remaining 55 products remained stable, making up 34.4% of the total.

　　Looking at the price‑rise rankings, butadiene prices surged last week, posting a weekly gain of 9.7%—the highest in four months. Gains in the international market bolstered domestic confidence, prompting Sinopec to raise its quotes. Although Liaoning Baolai has commissioned a new production unit, it has yet to begin output, and recent shipments from other producers have also been limited, keeping butadiene supply relatively tight. However, amid expectations of increased supply going forward, downstream inquiries remain subdued, suggesting that upside for butadiene prices will be constrained in the near term.

　　Recently, the acetone market has staged a modest rebound, ending a two-and-a-half-month downtrend. With the peak season approaching, downstream buyers have been replenishing their inventories, driving a narrow upward move in prices. Traders are quoting higher offers, though acetone prices remain relatively elevated compared with previous years, suggesting limited room for further gains in the near term. Downstream bisphenol A has also risen by 5%. At present, Sinopec–Mitsui’s plant is undergoing maintenance, Changchun Chemical’s unit is operating at reduced capacity, and Nantong Xingchen is shipping less externally, resulting in constrained BPA supply and upward price pressure.

　　Methanol prices at ports have edged up slightly. Recently, inbound shipments have tapered off, leading to a decline in port inventories, while the futures market has rebounded, providing support to the spot market. In addition, rising transportation costs have pushed prices higher in some domestic regions. However, with many methanol plants resuming operations and downstream demand remaining relatively subdued, there is limited room for further price increases going forward.

　　Looking at the list of biggest decliners, isopropyl alcohol has once again topped the rankings. Despite the ongoing downward trend, plant operating rates remain relatively high, keeping supply fairly ample. With the easing of the pandemic, overseas downstream demand has stayed robust; however, rising foreign supply has constrained domestic exports. Looking ahead, prices have now approached the post‑holiday support level, and with demand still underpinned by the pandemic, the isopropyl alcohol market is expected to see only limited further declines.

　　Recently, the acetic acid market has surged and then retreated. With plant maintenance now complete, industry operating rates have rebounded, easing earlier supply constraints. Market sentiment remains bearish, prompting a rational downward correction in prices. Downstream, with the exception of PTA, other sectors such as acetic esters are posting production losses, keeping utilization rates low and demand subdued. Meanwhile, export performance has been lackluster, and traders have been offering discounts to offload inventory, further weighing on the acetic acid market.

　　Following a modest uptick, the industrial naphthalene market reversed course and declined. Downstream phthalic anhydride producers operating via the naphthalene route are posting losses, with plant utilization rates falling and demand for raw materials weakening, leading to widespread bearish sentiment in the industrial naphthalene market. Meanwhile, coking‑tar prices have edged lower, eroding cost support. However, with deep‑processing facilities currently undergoing maintenance and industrial naphthalene inventories remaining relatively low, the outlook remains tilted toward weakness, with prices likely to hold steady in the near term.

　　Overall, recent typhoon-related weather has constrained the availability of imported supplies for certain chemical products, leading to a decline in inventories. Meanwhile, with the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” just around the corner, downstream restocking is picking up, stoking speculative sentiment and driving a modest rebound in market prices. However, the end‑user export market remains sluggish, and demand growth remains relatively muted; as a result, the market is expected to trade within a narrow range this week.

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